Issues in Quantitative Modelling in the Early Warning of Refugee Migration

This article discusses the problems associated with indicator analysis for the purpose of early warning. While the authors endorse the idea of quantitative EWM, they are sceptical of the understanding that many have of what EW analysis entails. In this article, they identify the limits of quantitative EW analysis and address many of the major problems that confront those who are committed to quantitative EW analysis. In particular, the authors discuss the following issues that need to be addressed when engaging in quantitative early warning analysis: the problem of "late warning;" problems of contextual sensitivity; problems of temporal development; data availability and measurement; and problems with the definition of the appropriate unit of analysis.Cet article traite des problèmes rattachés à l'utilisation d'indicateurs en matière d'alerte préventive. Tout en faisant état de la pertinence de l'élaboration de modèle quantitatifs, les auteurs émettent des doutes à propos des conclusions obtenues à partir de ces analyses. Les limites de ces modèles et les principaux obstacles rencontrés dans la conduite de ces analyses sont identifiés. Les problèmes rattachés à une alerte lancée en retard, au caractère évolutif des situations conflictuelles, à la disponibilité et à l'évaluation de l'information, à la définition et au choix de la méthode d'analyse appropriée ainsi qu'à l'article et à la susceptibilité des parties impliquées sont évoqués de manière particulière

Role of NASA's SeaBASS Repository for the Legacy of the EXPORTS Field Biogeochemical Measurements

Role of NASA's SeaBASS repository for the legacy of the EXPORTS field biogeochemical measurements

Decision-Making and Sustainable Drainage: Design and Scale

Sustainable Drainage (SuDS) improves water quality, reduces runoff water quantity, increases amenity and biodiversity benefits, and can also mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, an optimal solution has to be designed to be fit for purpose. Most research concentrates on individual devices, but the focus of this paper is on a full management train, showing the scale-related decision-making process in its design with reference to the city of Coventry, a local government authority in central England. It illustrates this with a large scale site-specific model which identifies the SuDS devices suitable for the area and also at the smaller scale, in order to achieve greenfield runoff rates. A method to create a series of maps using geographical information is shown, to indicate feasible locations for SuDS devices across the local government authority area. Applying the larger scale maps, a management train was designed for a smaller-scale regeneration site using MicroDrainage® software to control runoff at greenfield rates. The generated maps were constructed to provide initial guidance to local government on suitable SuDS at individual sites in a planning area. At all scales, the decision about which device to select was complex and influenced by a range of factors, with slightly different problems encountered. There was overall agreement between large and small scale models

Overcoming Dimensionality Barriers in Satellite Data to Elucidate SPECTRAL-SPATIAL-TEMPORAL Trends in the Ocean

The weighted harmonic mean of spectral wavelengths can be used as an index of optical water types that share similar spectral signatures.This technique can be translated to relate spectral shape between sensors of varying spectral resolution.The output along a continuum of color values enables spatio-temporal analysis of subtle spectral shifts.Directional trends in absorption and backscatter data lend a hidden context to changes in water color. Conceptualization of multiple data dimensions is imperative as passive/active sensors grow increasingly sophisticated in nature

Technical Report: TeraGrid eXtreme Digital Campus Cyberinfrastructure and Campus Bridging Requirements Elicitation Meeting

In an effort to systematically investigate requirements for TeraGrid XD, the XROADS collaboration held during 2009 a series of requirements elicitation meetings (REM) with small groups of stakeholders. This report summarizes the conduct of and results from a requirements elicitation meeting on the topics of campus bridging and campus cyberinfrastructure. The meeting’s goal was to develop a clearer and more functional definition of what the next phase of the TeraGrid should do to be a resource broadly useful to and used by university and college campuses throughout the US.This report depends very much on the prior involvement of several XROADS partners in the TeraGrid, which has been funded in part by the NSF via the following grant awards: 0504086, 0503697, and 0742145 to the University of Chicago; 0451237 and 0504075 to Indiana University; and 0122272, 0332113, 0451566, 0503944, 0910847 to the University of California San Diego

Time, Chemistry, Chance and Human Design

Four MA Fine Art students from the University of Northampton have raised the funds they need to be able to publish their own art book that will now be housed in the special collections library at the TATE Britain

Predictive validity of a brief antiretroviral adherence index: Retrospective cohort analysis under conditions of repetitive administration

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Newer antiretroviral (ARV) agents have improved pharmacokinetics, potency, and tolerability and have enabled the design of regimens with improved virologic outcomes. Successful antiretroviral therapy is dependent on patient adherence. In previous research, we validated a subset of items from the ACTG adherence battery as prognostic of virologic suppression at 6 months and correlated with adherence estimates from the Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). The objective of the current study was to validate the longitudinal use of the Owen Clinic adherence index in analyses of time to initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>278 patients (naïve n = 168, experienced n = 110) met inclusion criteria. Median [range] time on the first regimen during the study period was 286 (30 – 1221) days. 217 patients (78%) achieved an undetectable plasma viral load (pVL) at median 63 days. 8.3% (18/217) of patients experienced viral rebound (pVL > 400) after initial suppression. Adherence scores varied from 0 – 25 (mean 1.06, median 0). The lowest detectable adherence score cut point using this instrument was ≥ 5 for both initial suppression and maintenance of suppression. In the final Cox model of time to first undetectable pVL, controlling for prior treatment experience and baseline viral load, the adjusted hazard ratio for time updated adherence score was 0.36_{score ≥ 5}(95% CI: 0.19–0.69) [reference: <5]. In the final generalized estimating equations (GEE) logistic regression model the adjusted odds ratio for time-updated adherence score was 0.17_{score ≥ 5}(0.05–0.66) [reference: <5].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A brief, longitudinally administered self report adherence instrument predicted both initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression in patients using contemporary ARV regimens. The survey can be used for identification of sub-optimal adherence with subsequent appropriate intervention.</p

Relations between Chinese mothers\u27 parenting practices and social withdrawal in early childhood

Researchers have identified specific parenting practices used by parents of preschoolers in mainland China (e.g., physical coercion, overprotection, shaming, directiveness, encouragement of modesty). Some of the intrusive practices have been linked to social withdrawal in western societies (e.g., United States, Canada). It seemed important to examine these associations in China because recent research suggests that young Chinese children who exhibit wariness in peer settings may be at risk for negative outcomes such as peer rejection. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the relation between Chinese parenting practices and preschoolers\u27 social withdrawal. Mothers of preschool-age children from mainland China (N = 446) completed self-report parenting questionnaires. Teachers rated children\u27s reticent, solitary-passive, solitary-active, and modest behaviors. Results showed that (a) maternal directiveness was positively associated with reticent behavior in girls and negatively associated with solitary-passive behavior in boys, (b) maternal overprotection, for girls, was positively related to both reticent behavior and solitary-passive behavior, and negatively related to modest behavior, (c) coercion was positively associated with solitary-active and reticent behavior in girls, and (d) shaming was positively related to all forms of withdrawn behaviors in boys and girls, as well as positively related to modest behavior in boys. © 2006 The International Society for the Study of Behavioural Development